HD-DVD is nearly dead and it's quite possible that BluRay may soon see the same fate. At MacWorld San Francisco 2008 Steve Jobs announced the all new Apple TV Take 2 which now allows usage of the device without a computer. I can rent an HD movie, I can buy an HD movie and I can download HD Podcasts all from the comfort of my living room.

There are a few things holding back the Apple TV, namely quality. A BluRay disc can be encoded with 1080p h.264, uncompressed multi-channel audio and a 40Mbps data rate (48Mbps with audio). Compare that to Apple TV's h.264 up to 720p (or 1080i) at 5Mbps with AAC audio. That means that BluRay has the potential for 8x the video bitrate and much better audio. Keep in mind that this does not mean 8x the quality as a CODEC will see diminishing returns as the bitrate is pushed higher and higher, but even between 5Mbps and 10Mbps there's a pretty big difference.

Ease of use has a tendency to trump quality. A perfect example of this would be MP3s and MP3 players. Audio CDs have a much higher quality than an MP3 yet how many CD players do you see out there today vs iPods? While it is possible to put lossless audio on an iPod, how many people really, actually do that? Heck, just look at how many people still use the crummy default headphones that come with the iPod.

There are few people who will argue that the future of audio and video distribution is online. It's easier, cheaper and faster to simply push the data down the pipe rather than stamp out a round, shiny disc. The big question here is when. With Apple TV 2 it's become very, very easy to get HD movies, TV shows and Podcasts right on my HDTV. Think about that for a second. Unlike a BluRay player I can actually download nitch HD content that is interesting to me via my favorite Podcasts. No need to hook up a computer, no need to try and force my TiVO to give me access to the content I want (not just they content they say I want). It's all right there available at my fingertips.

Since Podcasters now have a new outlet to reach more viewers I think we'll see more and more Podcasts designed and compressed around the new Apple TV. These Podcasters will probably also buy the unit (if they haven't already) and start to evangelize it as an easy way to get their content on HDTVs. As more and more content becomes available on the Apple TV in the form of movies and TV shows we'll start to see more and more sales which will also push more and more Podcasters to use the device which will push more and more sales. It's a never ending cycle.

HD-DVD will die and go the way of BetaMax. BluRay will be around for a while as an elite platform for videophiles who want something better, and of course on the PS3. Apple TV 2 will start to gain traction but we'll really see a huge splash when Apple releases Apple TV 3 adding 1080p support and much higher bitrates. The future is downloadable HD media and while many companies have tried and failed, including Apple, this is the device that will change the world of HD as we know it.